By Moon of Alabama, 3/25/22:
This map of the situation in Ukraine on March 24 is provided by the French Ministry of Defense.
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It is likely the most realistic and neutral one available. It comes with short notes about the numbered theaters.
Here are my own takes:
- The Russian forces around Kiev are making no offensive moves but defend against minor unsuccessful counterattacks from the Ukrainian side (see below). I have seen no hint that Russia strives to get into Kiev. It would be too costly to do that and for little strategic gain. But the forces east and west of Kiev are binding a big part of the Ukrainian army and prevent it from sending reserves towards Donbas. Yesterday an air attack or missile destroyed the largest Ukrainian fuel depot left near Kiev. The Ukrainian army will soon lose its mobility.
- Kharkiv is about to get encircled.
- Dnipro is a strategic target that the Russian forces will like to take by coming up from the south on both sides of the Dnieper river as well as from the north. Russia destroyed a railway station between Dnipro and Donbas from where resupplies were flowing to the Ukrainian forces fighting there.
- After large progress yesterday Mariupol is now in a mop-up situation. The Azov forces still there have no chance to survive.
- Russian passage through Mykolayiv towards Odessa has proven to be
difficult. Artillery is now softening up the Ukrainian defense lines.
There were unconfirmed reports of large Ukrainian losses in Mykolayiv
due to a missile strike on their barracks.
[...]
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